Shorting a stock means selling shares you do not own in the hopes of benefiting from a decline in the price of the shares. The seller borrows shares, usually from a broker, and delivers them to a buyer in return for cash.

Arbitrage Pricing Theory (APT) is a multi-factor model conceived by Stephen Ross in 1976. It is a linear equation in which a series of input variables, such as economic indicators and market indices, are each assigned their own betas to determine the expected return of a target asset. These factor-specific betas (b) fine-tune the sensitivity of the target asset’s rate of return to the particular factor.

We left off last time showing how the Security Characteristic Line indicates the beta of an asset under Harry Markowitz’s Modern Portfolio Theory (MPT). We are now ready to discuss asset pricing models, and we’ll begin by documenting the Capital Asset Pricing Model (CAPM). This model was developed in the 1960’s by several independent researchers, including Sharpe, Treynor, Lintner and Mossin, building on Markowitz’s previous work.

CAPM is an equation that indicates the required rate of return (ROR) one should demand for holding a risky asset as part of a diversified portfolio, based on the asset’s beta. If CAPM indicates a rate of return that is different from that predicted using other criteria (such as P/E ratios or stock charts), then one should, in theory, buy or sell the asset depending on the relationship of the different estimates. For instance, if stock charting indicates that the ROR on Asset A should be 13% but CAPM estimates only a 9% ROR, one should sell or short the asset, which cumulatively should drive the price of Asset A down. Continue reading “Capital Asset Pricing Model, Part One – Normal Distribution” »

If you have been following our recent blogs, you are by now familiar with the concepts of alpha, beta, and the Efficient Market Hypothesis. Our final goal is to evaluate the role of alpha in hedge fund investing, and to look at trading strategies that do not rely on alpha. Before we can discuss these topics, we need to better understand financial asset pricing models, the role of alpha and beta within these models, and how the models apply specifically to hedge funds. In this installment, we’ll review the concept of rate of return (ROR).